Input-output analysis of China's plastic import ban

This study uses the International Input-Output Table to estimate the impact on Japan of China's ban on the import of waste plastics implemented at the end of 2017. Initially, by employing an econometric model, it was estimated that Japan's total waste plastic emissions decreased by an average of 39,000 tons from 2018 to 2022 due to China's ban on waste plastic imports. This reduction corresponds to 0.46% of the average annual total waste plastic emissions. Assuming a proportional relationship between Japan's total waste plastic emissions and domestic production, it was projected that the domestic production would decrease by an average of 0.46% annually. Furthermore, due to the anticipated decrease in Japan's production leading to a reduction in the import of intermediate goods from China and other countries, the study used the modified Leontief inverse matrix derived from the International Input-Output Table to calculate the negative economic multiplier effects （decrease in production） on China and other countries resulting from the decrease in Japan's production. As a result, we showed that, on average, from 2018 to 2022, China's ban on waste plastic imports had a negative economic multiplier effect of 4.2 trillion yen in Japan, 119.5 billion yen in China, and 5.0 trillion yen in the world.