Household debt, Leverage ratio and consumption expenditure: A macro evidence from China

This paper empirically examines the impacts of household debt and　leverage ratio, measured by the ratio of aggregate household debt to GDP, on consumption using provincial-level macro-data in China. Results show that household indebtedness has a positive and significant effect on consumption expenditure and this remains true for both household debt and leverage ratio, as well as long-term and short-term debts and leverage ratios, and the encouraging effects are heterogeneous across regions. When the debt-to-GDP ratio is below 100%, the consumption experiences faster growth than that when the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 100%. In addition, residents’ saving, per capita disposal income and the public expenditure on education, social security, as well as medical and health services are found to have significant positive effects on consumption, while CPI and child dependency ratio have depressive effects.