Prediction of debris flow occurrence in mizunashi river with 1-3 hour rainfall amount forecast

Prediction of debris flow occurrence in mizunashi river with 1-3 hour rainfall amount forecast

Creators Shiotsuki Yoshiharu

Creators Shibasaki Kazuya

Creators Inoue Masayuki

Creators Minami Masaaki

The prediction expreiments of debris flow occurrence with flooding in Mizunashi river are made using the rain score predicted by the 1-3 hour rainfall forecasting method. The results show the usefulness of rain score P information for the precaution activity of inhabitants against the damage. They have sufficient time of 20-30 minutes for escaping from debris flow hazard in all cases tested, if the precaution activity is started at the time when the predicted P is crossing the criterion P≧-5 with 62.5% probability of debris flow occurrence or P≧0 with 75% probability.

[ISSN]0386-3433

[NCID]AA0086073X