Amatsu Kuniaki

Structural transformation matters for economic growth and economic development of one country. Industrialization plays a crucial role as its engine. However, it is fact that some countries succeeded in it while others did not. When we compare the ratio of manufacturing value-added to GDP（ MVA/GDP） between the successful and failed or stagnant countries, variations of those trajectories are observed. Even among the latter countries, their patters are not uniform. This paper is very keen to the pattern of failures and stagnation of industrialization such as India, Ghana, and Egypt, in which the ratio of MVA/GDP went down, followed by economic, social and political crisis and long stagnation was resulted from in the subsequent periods. It is hypothesized that that pattern has a close relationship with ambitious industrialization vision embarked on by the state leaders and policy makers in a manner which did not meet the reality of the manufacturing sector. Against that hypothesis, to what extent can the existing literatures give us persuasive interpretation? To examine it, this paper will review those one arguing the causes and mechanism of failed and stagnant industrialization and finally reach an argument of the industrialization vision as a possible candidate.