A risk estimating model for traffic accident based on the human error in judgement on vehicular traffic speed

Recent every year, more than ten thousand people have been killed and about eighty hundred thousand peoples have been injured on roads in Japan. Many of those traffic accidents are caused not only by careless or reckless behaviors but also by human errors concerning with drivers and pedestrians. The typical human errors concerned with traffic accidents are made in judgement on speed and distance of oncoming vehicles, e.g., right-turn drivers at intersections often made errors of judgement on vehicular speed and headway of oncoming vehicles, and pedestrians frequently select too short headway to across a road as a results of underestimate of vehicular speeds. To decrease traffic acccidents resulted such human errors, it is required to provide more definite informations on the relationships between the human error and danger of traffic accidents. We developed a probabilistic model to estimate the risk of traffic accident caused in pedestrians road crossing based on the error of judgement on vehicular speed and headway. Some results of the model culculations are also shown and discussed in this paper.